Sheldon & Russell Moore Homelife Glenayre Realty Chwk.

Chilliwack and area real estate for sale.

Office 604-795-2955

Fax 604-795-2770

Email: sheldon@echilliwack.com

Given the fear-inducing movements in the financial markets over the past few months — declines coupled with increases in volatility, tumbles in oil prices, as well as Brexit and Trump-related developments — one can understand why consumers and businesses are anticipating a major growth slowdown.

But the authors of Scotiabank’s latest global economic outlook beg to disagree. Citing the positive reversal in equity markets over the past couple of weeks as well as their own recession probability modeling, they argued that investors are over-reacting to minor changes in the outlook.

 

“From a Canadian perspective, much is being made of the rapid drop in oil prices and the widening of the differential of the price received for Canadian oil late last year,” the Scotiabank economists wrote. They noted that a drop in international oil prices and a shutdown of US refineries, which helped send Canadian oil prices to nearly $15 in November, have since been reversed. An Alberta government order for oil firms to cut production has also contributed to a Canadian price recovery. “This suggests that the impact of the decline in oil prices may not be as sharp for Canada as the Bank of Canada believes,” the analysts said.

As for the fear that the estimated 10% decline in equity markets would weigh on Canadian wealth and consequently spending, the analysts maintained their expectations that financial wealth will gradually rise to levels more consistent with economic fundamentals. “The pickup in equity indices over the last two weeks is a sign that this is already underway,” they said, adding that their research suggests the impact of financial wealth on spending is much smaller in Canada than it is in the US.

The report granted that the negative factors have caused Scotia analysts to shave their growth forecast down to 1.8% in 2019, they saw it only as a soft patch that would yield to 2% in growth in 2020. They pointed to generally positive fundamentals including:

  • Monetary policy that remains highly accommodative as real policy rates remain negative and nominal rates below the Bank of Canada’s neutral-rate range of 2.5%-3.5%;
  • Population growth is accelerating at a 10-year record pace as immigration rises;
  • Employment growth is still strong with job growth accelerating through 2018;
  • Canadian household balance sheets are still relatively healthy, given a debt-to-net worth ratio that’s still roughly where it was in 2007; and
  • Inflation remains well behaved in Canada, with the bank’s underlying measures of inflation pointing to 1.9% — close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target

They also acknowledged areas of weakness, such as oil-industry developments that have dragged on growth, declining sales and starts in the housing sector relative to 2017, and moderating business investment compared to the rapid pace set in early 2018.

“There are plenty of risks to the outlook,” the report said. It cited a possible escalation of the US-China trade war as the dominant negative risk, with additional volatility also possibly coming out of political developments shaking the Trump administration in the US.

They also noted positive risks, including a smaller-than-expected impact of oil prices on the Canadian economy, an extended bull run in oil prices, and a sharper-than-anticipated pickup in business investment as reasons for uncertainty wane in the first months of this year.


by Leo Almazora 13 Jan 2019
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Canada’s home sales skidded to the lowest level since 2012 last year after dropping for four straight months through December, as higher interest rates and tighter lending rules cast a pall over the real estate market.

Nationwide, sales totalled 458,442 for the year, a drop of 11 percent which was the biggest since 2008, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday from Ottawa. The 2.5 percent December drop from the prior month was the most in eight months. Vancouver and Toronto led the slowdown in transactions.

 

Weaker-than-expected housing data prompted central bank officials to mark down growth forecasts earlier this month and to adjust the pace at which they may pursue monetary tightening, as evidence emerges the five hikes since mid-2017 are already having a significant impact. The higher rates and tougher mortgage regulations will probably weigh on housing demand again this year as more Canadians carrying five-year fixed term mortgages face a reset.

“It’s clear that higher interest rates are having an impact,’’ Benjamin Reitzes, a Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone from Toronto. “It was a difficult year and you are coming off a very strong run for housing,’’ he said, adding there is little chance of a “major comeback’’ in 2019.


Vancouver sales fell 32 percent last year, the most since 2008, and Toronto sales declined 16 percent. Toronto showed some stability in December with sales flat on the month and benchmark prices up 3 percent from a year earlier.

“The stress-test has weighed on sales to varying degrees in all Canadian housing markets and it will continue to do so this year,” CREA President Barb Sukkau said in the report, referring to new rules from the federal banking regulator. With mortgage lending fading to the slowest in decades, CREA cut its 2019 sales forecast last month to a 0.5 percent decline this year compared with a September prediction for growth of 2.1 percent.


Vancouver’s average sales price was C$1.03 million ($780,000) in December, down 2.1 percent from a year earlier, and the Toronto average was C$750,180. Those markets are well ahead of the national average price of C$472,280.

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I have listed a new property at 9875 CARLETON ST in Chilliwack.
GREAT FAMILY HOME!! Large fenced yard for the dog with run, with covered BBQ area with wiring for hot tub roughed in. Garage with shop area. Drive way has ample room for parking for 6 and/or a RV. Located beside elementary school, with middle and high schools a few blocks away. 3 bds down with large master up and a gorgeous en suite. Large rec area down for the kids or man cave! Open concept kitchen and pantry. Great set up for family living!!
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I have listed a new property at 45271 BERNARD AVE in Chilliwack.
Great central location, close to shopping, hospital, school, rec center, arena, sports fields, easy freeway access, in excellent condition ,this home has three bedrooms on the main, could be two more down. Two bathrooms. large rec room / wet bar, air tight wood stove down, with gas fireplace upstairs. central air, fully fenced accessible back yard. newer roof, easy in-law potential, lots of updates, tons of parking for your all your toys. Excellent value here, don't miss out, call today.
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I have listed a new property at 63846 BAILEY CRES in Hope.
Located on quite street, this three bedroom home with full basement is in excellent condition. lots of updates such as fridge, stove, dishwasher, main washroom with surround tub & shower doors. New vinyl windows, washer & dryer, new furnace, new wood stove in basement (certified) , metal roof, and a new 28 x 18 insulated shop for the men folk. Beautiful landscaped front & back yard with fire pit and great garden area for growing your own. In the back yard is a large colored concrete pad with private gazebo and also off the kitchen is another covered deck 12 x12 so you can enjoy those nice summer days. There is tons of parking for your R.V and boat. Freeway access not far away & close to school also recreation at your doorstep.
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I have listed a new property at 2873 CENTURY CRES in Abbotsford.
Located in super popular neighborhood (Terry Fox area), large size home with 5 bedrooms and three bathrooms on huge 10,000 sq.ft. professionally landscaped lot with a private back yard to die for! Your own Oasis/ greenbelt (no neighbors) with rock waterfall, gazebo on nice size deck, banana trees. Wiring in place for hot tub. Family room has beautiful wood rock fireplace off the kitchen, fully finished basement with separate entry, poss.in law suite potential. Double-glazed vinyl windows in 2013 throughout plus small balcony off one of the upstairs bedrooms. New roof in 2010, New furnace in 2015, Hot water tank in 2009. In walking distance to Abby Middle & Senior schools and central to major shopping malls. Don't miss out, call today!
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I have listed a new property at 211 31955 OLD YALE RD in Abbotsford.
Nice south facing in Evergreen Village lo-rise. In-suite laundry, lots of storage. New carpets in the living room and bedrooms, with Engineered Hardwood flooring in dining room an hallways for this bright large 1092 sq.ft unit. Wheelchair access. Complex is close to shopping, recreation, and bus. Close to front entrance & pool/hot tub. Separate storage locker on same floor as parking. Very popular Evergreen Village offers guest suite, well equipped workshop, meeting room, games room, RV parking, library, pool and hot tub. 55+ no pets no rentals. Strata fee only $284/mth. Includes underground parking spot, heating, water and all amenities.
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I have listed a new property at 36004 EMPRESS LANE in Abbotsford.
WOW! Custom built 2 storey, three level huge gorgeous home over 4600 sqft with largest lot on the block of over 12,000 sq.ft. The 180 degree panoramic view of the valley and Mt. Baker make living here paradise everyday. Features include 5 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms, 2 gas fireplaces, 2x6 construction, 9 ft ceiling, great en suite with brand new shower, low E window on south side. Fully finished in law suite with separate entry. Luxury kitchen with 40 ft. of custom made Maple cabinets, vaulted living room, coffered ceiling in dining and family area. Main covered sundeck is 33x13, walk out patio in basement is 33 x 13. Tons of upgrades over the years, incredible value, call now to view this home before it's gone!
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I have listed a new property at 162 6001 PROMONTORY RD in Chilliwack.
Excellent retirement 2 bdrm, 2 bath rancher in Promontory Lake Estates. Featuring a very spacious living rm with gas fireplace and formal dining area. Modern paint colors and professional designed landscaped fenced yard by Brian Minter. Glass door separating kitchen and dining room. Air conditioning & heat pump. Newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, double garage, lease $100/mth, maintenance $150/mth which includes water, sewer, garbage pick up, snow removal, lawn maintenance. Enjoy this gated community with easy access to all amenities. Pets allowed with restrictions, 45+ gated community with no rentals.
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I have listed a new property at 58955 ANDERSON LANE in Laidlaw.
Prime five acre parcel of level farm land in Laidlaw just west of Hope, all in pasture, fenced, on dead end paved road. Only 1 1/2 hours in from Vancouver or less, surrounded by picturesque scenic mountains and tranquil quiet living life style, just minutes from the Fraser River, quick freeway access. Comes with 2 storey full basement 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms home with metal roof, small barn out building. Finally enjoy the slow pace of life style that you deserve yet not off the beaten path. Close to all types of recreation and outdoor activities with many lakes near by. Can be yours to enjoy.
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