Sheldon Moore Homelife Advantage Realty Ltd.

Chilliwack and area real estate for sale.

Office 604-795-2955

Fax 604-795-2770

Email: sheldon@echilliwack.com

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Given the fear-inducing movements in the financial markets over the past few months — declines coupled with increases in volatility, tumbles in oil prices, as well as Brexit and Trump-related developments — one can understand why consumers and businesses are anticipating a major growth slowdown.

But the authors of Scotiabank’s latest global economic outlook beg to disagree. Citing the positive reversal in equity markets over the past couple of weeks as well as their own recession probability modeling, they argued that investors are over-reacting to minor changes in the outlook.

 

“From a Canadian perspective, much is being made of the rapid drop in oil prices and the widening of the differential of the price received for Canadian oil late last year,” the Scotiabank economists wrote. They noted that a drop in international oil prices and a shutdown of US refineries, which helped send Canadian oil prices to nearly $15 in November, have since been reversed. An Alberta government order for oil firms to cut production has also contributed to a Canadian price recovery. “This suggests that the impact of the decline in oil prices may not be as sharp for Canada as the Bank of Canada believes,” the analysts said.

As for the fear that the estimated 10% decline in equity markets would weigh on Canadian wealth and consequently spending, the analysts maintained their expectations that financial wealth will gradually rise to levels more consistent with economic fundamentals. “The pickup in equity indices over the last two weeks is a sign that this is already underway,” they said, adding that their research suggests the impact of financial wealth on spending is much smaller in Canada than it is in the US.

The report granted that the negative factors have caused Scotia analysts to shave their growth forecast down to 1.8% in 2019, they saw it only as a soft patch that would yield to 2% in growth in 2020. They pointed to generally positive fundamentals including:

  • Monetary policy that remains highly accommodative as real policy rates remain negative and nominal rates below the Bank of Canada’s neutral-rate range of 2.5%-3.5%;
  • Population growth is accelerating at a 10-year record pace as immigration rises;
  • Employment growth is still strong with job growth accelerating through 2018;
  • Canadian household balance sheets are still relatively healthy, given a debt-to-net worth ratio that’s still roughly where it was in 2007; and
  • Inflation remains well behaved in Canada, with the bank’s underlying measures of inflation pointing to 1.9% — close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target

They also acknowledged areas of weakness, such as oil-industry developments that have dragged on growth, declining sales and starts in the housing sector relative to 2017, and moderating business investment compared to the rapid pace set in early 2018.

“There are plenty of risks to the outlook,” the report said. It cited a possible escalation of the US-China trade war as the dominant negative risk, with additional volatility also possibly coming out of political developments shaking the Trump administration in the US.

They also noted positive risks, including a smaller-than-expected impact of oil prices on the Canadian economy, an extended bull run in oil prices, and a sharper-than-anticipated pickup in business investment as reasons for uncertainty wane in the first months of this year.


by Leo Almazora 13 Jan 2019
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Canada’s home sales skidded to the lowest level since 2012 last year after dropping for four straight months through December, as higher interest rates and tighter lending rules cast a pall over the real estate market.

Nationwide, sales totalled 458,442 for the year, a drop of 11 percent which was the biggest since 2008, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday from Ottawa. The 2.5 percent December drop from the prior month was the most in eight months. Vancouver and Toronto led the slowdown in transactions.

 

Weaker-than-expected housing data prompted central bank officials to mark down growth forecasts earlier this month and to adjust the pace at which they may pursue monetary tightening, as evidence emerges the five hikes since mid-2017 are already having a significant impact. The higher rates and tougher mortgage regulations will probably weigh on housing demand again this year as more Canadians carrying five-year fixed term mortgages face a reset.

“It’s clear that higher interest rates are having an impact,’’ Benjamin Reitzes, a Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone from Toronto. “It was a difficult year and you are coming off a very strong run for housing,’’ he said, adding there is little chance of a “major comeback’’ in 2019.


Vancouver sales fell 32 percent last year, the most since 2008, and Toronto sales declined 16 percent. Toronto showed some stability in December with sales flat on the month and benchmark prices up 3 percent from a year earlier.

“The stress-test has weighed on sales to varying degrees in all Canadian housing markets and it will continue to do so this year,” CREA President Barb Sukkau said in the report, referring to new rules from the federal banking regulator. With mortgage lending fading to the slowest in decades, CREA cut its 2019 sales forecast last month to a 0.5 percent decline this year compared with a September prediction for growth of 2.1 percent.


Vancouver’s average sales price was C$1.03 million ($780,000) in December, down 2.1 percent from a year earlier, and the Toronto average was C$750,180. Those markets are well ahead of the national average price of C$472,280.

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➡️➡️Rare almost half acre property on Promontory! West coast cedar home features various levels with open concept living. Vaulted ceiling in living room with large brick fireplace & floor to ceiling windows. Large country kitchen dining area accessing deck. Bright downstairs comes with two nice size bedrooms, large size family room with fireplace opening onto an expansive two level deck with hot tub. Home comes with three bathroom & lots of storage and parking. Double garage, and now the best part, with no neighbors on either side or front, come home every night to the unobstructed million dollar view overlooking the city lights you will have wanting to call this home. Call today!

TO VIEW 5840 JINKERSON ROAD - CLICK HERE

Russell Moore
Homelife Glenayre Realty
1 800 795 2955
echilliwack.com

 

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Birch Street Properties - 9000 Birch Street Chilliwack, BC V2P 4N6. This building located on Birch Street and Alexander Avenue, was built in 2006 and features 4 levels with 58 professionally managed homes. This building is well maintained and has secured underground parking, visitor parking, and elevators. It has frame wood construction with a full rain screen, concrete perimeter foundation, with vinyl exterior finishings. Surrounding this downtown location are the library, fire department, Safeway, and a variety of fast food restaurants. Rentals are allowed in this building and it has an age restriction of 19+. @ pets per unit are allowed, including cats or dogs.


FOR ALL LISTINGS IN BIRCHSTREET PROPERTIES - CLICK HERE

See all condos for sale in Chilliwack @eChilliwack.com

Sheldon Moore
Homelife Glenayre Realty
1 800 795 2955

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CLICK HERE FOR LISTING IN PROMONTORY LAKE ESTATES

 

➡️➡️ Excellent retirement 2 bdrm, 2 bath rancher in Promontory Lake Estates. Featuring a very spacious living rm with gas fireplace and formal dining area. Modern paint colors and professional designed landscaped fenced yard by Brian Minter. Glass door separating kitchen and dining room. Air conditioning & heat pump. Newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, double garage, lease $100/mth, maintenance $150/mth which includes water, sewer, garbage pick up, snow removal, lawn maintenance. Enjoy this gated community with easy access to all amenities. Pets allowed with restrictions, 45+ gated community with no rentals.

Russell Moore
HomeLife Glenayre Realty Chilliwack
604-795-2955

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